Y2K Countdown

Or the Next Big Thing

Originally, this was a countdown to Y2K. Now it is a countdown until retirement.

This applet shows lines of code and application programs that I have the time to write between now and the end of the when I retire. The estimate is based on the COCOMO cost model, and the following assumptions:

  • Down-to-the-wire programming. Final date is 10 Sep ‘12.
  • A typical adaptation adjustment factor of 0.04. This means 4% of the program is fresh coding. This rolls together design, code and test impact of adaptation.
  • An average “program” size of 1000 SLOC. [For python, it turns out to be about 300 lines of code per module, and a web site might have over 100 modules; something like 32,000 lines of code per year of effort.]
  • Unlimited staff availability to perform the required labor.

You can change the adaptation adjustment factor and source lines of code per program assumptions via a pop-up “fine-tune” window.

The COCOMO model has a fixed relationship between labor effort and duration. Adding more people will not reduce the time to complete the effort. That is why we can reverse the COCOMO relationships to go from duration to labor effort to source lines of code.

Applet Source


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